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Yet the presence of professional counterparties complicates the customer-facing idea that prediction markets merely allow users to trade opinions with one another. As Kendrick puts it, two ordinary customers are not going to place $10 million or $20 million behind the Philadelphia Eagles. Markets at that scale require institutions.

For Marantelli, the exchange format could also cause some customers to lose money faster than they would with a conventional sportsbook. The ability to enter and exit positions creates a perception of flexibility, but that optionality can encourage users to commit more of their bankroll.

A customer might buy a team at 55 or 56 cents expecting the price to rise to 58 or 59 cents, he explains. If it falls to 45 cents instead, the trader may refuse to accept the loss and continue holding the position.

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Another aim is to raise awareness and Kesitilwe reveals the campaign has generated over a million online impressions which, in his view, demonstrates “a real appetite” for enhanced safer gambling efforts in Africa.

When asked what issue requires the most attention, Kesitilwe highlights underage gambling, especially as mobile penetration in Africa continues to soar.

Particularly concerning to Kesitilwe is the amount of gambling advertising in sports-related content.

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Kalshi, Robinhood, Crypto.com and DraftKings’ own prediction-market operation are all competing for activity around sporting events. Beynon says prediction markets are having a larger effect on valuations than on fundamentals so far.

The existence of a new competitor does not automatically mean sportsbook revenue will collapse. But valuations do not require proof of collapse to fall. A loss of confidence in future growth can be enough.

And now sportsbooks are joining the prediction market race themselves. DraftKings has moved into the market, while Flutter is also developing its presence. That could make prediction markets an additional source of revenue rather than a straightforward threat.